An estimative (warning) model for recognition of pandemic nature of virus infections

A simple SIS-type mathematical model of infection expansion is presented and analysed with focus on the case SARS-Cov-2. It takes into account two processes, namely, infection and recovery/decease characterised by two parameters in total: contact rate and recovery/decease rate. Its solution has a form of a quasi-logistic function for which we have introduced an infection index that, should it become negative, can also be considered as a recovery/decease index with decrease of infected down to zero. Based on the data from open sources for the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, seasonal influenza epidemics and a pandemic in the fauna world, a threshold value of the infection index has been shown to exist above which an infection expansion pretends to be considered as pandemic. Lean (two-parameter) SIR models affined with the warning SIS model have been built. Their general solutions have been obtained, analysed and shown to be a priori structurally adjusted to the infectives' peak in epidemiological data.

Pharmaceutics for free-ranging wildlife: Case studies to illustrate considerations and future prospects.

Wildlife medicine is a specialised division of veterinary medicine that is concerned with patients that are physiologically very diverse with similarly diverse life histories. The medicines to be delivered to wildlife parallel those used in other areas of veterinary medicine and human medicine, however species-specific information on drug administration is lacking for wildlife species. Currently there are numerous threats of extinction to wildlife globally due to climate change and habitat destruction. The COVID-19 pandemic has also made us acutely aware of the important link between human health and wildlife health and how zoonotic diseases can cause devastating impacts globally. Consequently, the ability to effectively treat this group of animals with therapeutic compounds is becoming increasingly more critical. Importantly, delivery of therapeutics to wildlife is a particular challenge that must be overcome. The objective is to highlight the area of wildlife therapeutics as an emerging field by presenting case studies to illustrate the opportunities for engagement of pharmaceutical scientists in this fascinating frontier of research. The case studies included are avian malaria in yellow-eyed penguins, transmissible cancers in Tasmanian devils, and the vaccination of wildlife for the control of SARS-Cov-2 transmission.